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Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Amiens 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajaccio beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.49 xG and Amiens 0.95 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Amiens attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 50% | Draw 26% | Amiens 24%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 39%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajaccio's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Amiens's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.21 PPG, Amiens 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights