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Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Strasbourg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Strasbourg 1-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.76 xG and Strasbourg 1.47 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Strasbourg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Strasbourg attack 1.12 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 45% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 32%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 50%, Strasbourg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Strasbourg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights