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Shock result as Strasbourg defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.60 xG and Strasbourg 1.25 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Strasbourg attack 1.11 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 44% | Draw 28% | Strasbourg 29%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Strasbourg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Strasbourg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.34 PPG, Strasbourg 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights