Toulouse vs Saint Etienne – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.44 xG and Saint Etienne 0.67 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Saint Etienne attack 0.64 / defence 1.77, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 76% | Draw 16% | Saint Etienne 8%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Saint Etienne 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.27 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights