Toulouse 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 76%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Toulouse welcome Saint Etienne to Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Toulouse) versus 1.00 (Saint Etienne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Saint Etienne 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Saint Etienne 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 2.44 xG and Saint Etienne 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.925 / defence 0.818 | Saint Etienne attack 0.638 / defence 1.775. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.279. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.775 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Toulouse games / 14 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 76% | Draw 16% | Saint Etienne 8%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Saint Etienne 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 50% | Saint Etienne 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 76% | Draw 16% | Saint Etienne 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 45% | xG Toulouse 2.44 / Saint Etienne 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.925 / def 0.818 | Saint Etienne attack 0.638 / def 1.775 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Saint Etienne xG
45%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Toulouse vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Toulouse 2 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Toulouse vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Saint Etienne part of?
Toulouse vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 76% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Toulouse and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Saint Etienne in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.93x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.77x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.11
8%
13.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.11
0.67
Saint Etienne xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.11
16%
Draw
13.07
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
9%
11.52
Win to Nil
39%
2.57
1%
150.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.67 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse's recent record stands at 16W 13D 19L from 48 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 18L across 48 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.27 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 6W 8D 9L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Saint Etienne's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.21 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 29%.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 22W 8D 18L in their last 48 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Saint Etienne away?
Toulouse's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.13 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Saint Etienne 2-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Saint Etienne?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 61%, Saint Etienne 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Toulouse) and 48% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 39%; Saint Etienne in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Toulouse's recent matches and 26% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Toulouse's recent games and 48% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.44 xG and Saint Etienne 0.67 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Saint Etienne attack 0.64 / defence 1.77, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 76% | Draw 16% | Saint Etienne 8%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Saint Etienne 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.27 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.