🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Rennes at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Angers encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Rennes host Angers at Roazhon Park in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Rennes — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rennes have posted 4W 2D 4L at Roazhon Park — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Angers have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Rennes) versus 1.20 (Angers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Rennes, 1 for Angers and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 4–2 with Rennes winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Rennes in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Angers in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Angers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 56% | Angers 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.38 xG and Angers 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.162 / defence 0.861 | Angers attack 0.706 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.273. Data: 48 Rennes games / 14 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rennes 50% | Draw 31% | Angers 19%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Angers 5.26. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 50% | Angers 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights