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Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Rennes 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Rennes 2-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.37 xG and Rennes 1.91 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rennes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Rennes attack 1.21 / defence 1.08, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 28% | Draw 22% | Rennes 50%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 55%, Rennes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Rennes's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.20 PPG, Rennes 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights