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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 3-6 hammering of Toulouse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Toulouse 3-6 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.21 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.39 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-6 for 9 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.39 projection by 4.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.29 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 33% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 41%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 47%, Paris Saint Germain 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights