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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sat 30 Aug 2025

20:05

Venue

Stadium de Toulouse

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Paris Saint Germain Win

33%

Toulouse

3.07

26%

Draw

3.81

41%

Paris Saint Germain

2.43

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.3%

Away win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.21

Toulouse xG

Total xG

2.60

1.39

Paris Saint Germain xG

33%
26%
41%
ToulouseDrawParis Saint Germain

3.07

33%

Home win

3.81

26%

Draw

2.43

41%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.90

47%

BTTS No

2.12

Clean Sheet

25%

Toulouse

4.03

30%

Paris Saint Germain

3.35

Win to Nil

8%

Toulouse

12.38

12%

Paris Saint Germain

8.13

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4 10.3 7.2 3.3 1.2 0.3
1 9.0 12.5 8.7 4.0 1.4 0.4
2 5.4 7.5 5.3 2.4 0.9 0.2
3 2.2 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.209
λ Away (xG) 1.394
Total xG 2.603
League avg home goals 1.550
League avg away goals 1.198
Toulouse attack strength 0.952
Toulouse defence strength 0.900
Paris Saint Germain attack strength 1.293
Paris Saint Germain defence strength 0.819
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 36 / 36