🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Nice 5-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.57 xG and Nice 1.23 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against Nice attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 45% | Draw 25% | Nice 30%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 51%, Nice 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Nice's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.27 PPG, Nice 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights