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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Metz 4-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.97 xG and Metz 1.56 xG, a combined 4.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.15 / defence 1.35 against Metz attack 0.92 / defence 1.52, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 66% | Draw 16% | Metz 18%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 51%, Metz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Metz's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights