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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 19 Oct 2025

16:15

Venue

Stadium de Toulouse

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Toulouse Win

66%

Toulouse

1.51

16%

Draw

6.29

18%

Metz

5.60

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

7.4%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 1

7.3%

Home win

2 – 2

5.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.97

Toulouse xG

Total xG

4.53

1.56

Metz xG

66%
16%
18%
ToulouseDrawMetz

1.51

66%

Home win

6.29

16%

Draw

5.60

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

94%

Over 1.5

1.06

6%

Under 1.5

16.67

83%

Over 2.5

1.20

17%

Under 2.5

5.88

66%

Over 3.5

1.52

34%

Under 3.5

2.94

47%

Over 4.5

2.13

53%

Under 4.5

1.89

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

75%

BTTS Yes

1.33

25%

BTTS No

4.00

Clean Sheet

21%

Toulouse

4.77

5%

Metz

19.47

Win to Nil

14%

Toulouse

7.20

1%

Metz

108.97

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.1 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
1 3.2 5.0 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2
2 4.7 7.4 5.8 3.0 1.2 0.4
3 4.7 7.3 5.7 3.0 1.2 0.4
4 3.5 5.4 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.3
5 2.1 3.2 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.969
λ Away (xG) 1.562
Total xG 4.531
League avg home goals 1.701
League avg away goals 1.255
Toulouse attack strength 1.149
Toulouse defence strength 1.348
Metz attack strength 0.923
Metz defence strength 1.519
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 7