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Shock result as Marseille defy the odds to beat Toulouse 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Toulouse 0-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.76 xG and Marseille 1.41 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Marseille attack 1.18 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 46% | Draw 23% | Marseille 31%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Marseille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 48%, Marseille 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Marseille's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights