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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lens run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Toulouse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lens beat Toulouse 0-3 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.23 xG and Lens 1.36 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lens outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Lens attack 1.18 / defence 0.84, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 34% | Draw 26% | Lens 40%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 50%, Lens 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Lens's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights