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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse and Le Havre finished level at 0-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.13 xG and Le Havre 1.43 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against Le Havre attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 53% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 26%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 52%, Le Havre 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Le Havre's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.27 PPG, Le Havre 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights