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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse and Auxerre finished level at 0-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.81 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Auxerre attack 0.67 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 59% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 19%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 51%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Auxerre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.34 PPG, Auxerre 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights