Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Toulouse (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Toulouse face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Auxerre meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Auxerre have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Toulouse's favour (1.60 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Toulouse have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Auxerre managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Toulouse and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 51% versus Auxerre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 51% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.81 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.093 / defence 1.059 | Auxerre attack 0.674 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.276. Data: 53 Toulouse games / 53 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 59% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 19%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 40% | Auxerre 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 59% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Toulouse 1.81 / Auxerre 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.093 / def 1.059 | Auxerre attack 0.674 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Auxerre xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Auxerre kick off?
Toulouse vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Toulouse 0 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Toulouse vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Auxerre part of?
Toulouse vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 59% chance of winning, Auxerre a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Toulouse and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Auxerre?
Record (7 meetings): Toulouse 4W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Auxerre in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.09x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.67x) against Toulouse's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.39
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.72
0.91
Auxerre xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
3%
33.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.91 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 14D 20L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.02 PPG from 53 outings (14W 12D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Toulouse against 1.02 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Toulouse's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.65 points per game from 26 outings (4W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.17 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Auxerre away?
Toulouse's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.31 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Auxerre in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 6-0 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Toulouse
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Auxerre?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Auxerre?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 62%, Auxerre 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Toulouse) and 54% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Toulouse's games and 54% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Toulouse's recent games and 54% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Auxerre tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Auxerre finished level at 0-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.81 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Auxerre attack 0.67 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 59% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 19%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 51%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Auxerre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.34 PPG, Auxerre 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.