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Poisson model favours Toulouse (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Toulouse face Auxerre.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Toulouse and Auxerre meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Current Form

Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Toulouse's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Auxerre have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Toulouse's favour (1.60 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Toulouse have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Auxerre managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Toulouse and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 51% versus Auxerre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 51% | Auxerre 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.81 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.093 / defence 1.059 | Auxerre attack 0.674 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.276. Data: 53 Toulouse games / 53 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Toulouse 59% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 19%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 40% | Auxerre 40% BTTS from recent games.

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