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Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Toulouse 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Toulouse 0-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.69 xG and Angers 1.06 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against Angers attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 52% | Draw 24% | Angers 24%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Angers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 50%, Angers 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Angers's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.26 PPG, Angers 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights