Toulouse 0-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Angers travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Angers — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Angers have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.00 PPG versus Angers's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Toulouse have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Angers have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 4–0 with Toulouse winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Toulouse and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Angers trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Angers 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Toulouse 50% | Angers 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.69 xG and Angers 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.052 / defence 1.119 | Angers attack 0.793 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.197. Data: 46 Toulouse games / 46 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 52% | Draw 24% | Angers 24%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Angers 4.17. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 70% | Angers 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 52% | Draw 24% | Angers 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Toulouse 1.69 / Angers 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.052 / def 1.119 | Angers attack 0.793 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Angers xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Angers kick off?
Toulouse vs Angers kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Angers?
Toulouse 0 - 1 Angers.
Where is Toulouse vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Angers part of?
Toulouse vs Angers is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 52% chance of winning, Angers a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Toulouse and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Angers?
Record (4 meetings): Toulouse 3W | Draws 1 | Angers 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Angers in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Angers (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.15
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.75
1.06
Angers xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
4%
22.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.06 for Angers, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse's recent record stands at 15W 13D 18L from 46 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Angers, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 23L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.26 PPG, Angers on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 7W 8D 8L from 23 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Angers's away record stands at 5W 6D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.91 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Angers in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Angers have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Angers away?
Toulouse's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.26 PPG; Angers away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Angers in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Angers runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Toulouse won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Angers specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Angers?
From 6 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Angers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Angers 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Angers?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 65%, Angers 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Toulouse) and 22% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Angers in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Toulouse's recent matches and 35% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Toulouse's recent games and 22% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Angers tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Angers in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Toulouse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Toulouse 0-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.69 xG and Angers 1.06 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against Angers attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 52% | Draw 24% | Angers 24%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Angers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 50%, Angers 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Angers's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.26 PPG, Angers 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.