🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Strasbourg defy the odds to beat Toulouse 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Toulouse 2-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.15 xG and Toulouse 1.34 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.99 / defence 0.81 against Toulouse attack 1.20 / defence 0.78, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 31% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 41%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 56%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Toulouse's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.34 PPG, Toulouse 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights