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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Strasbourg 1-2 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.27 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.77 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Strasbourg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.26 / defence 0.70 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 71% | Draw 18% | Stade Brestois 29 11%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Stade Brestois 29 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 60%, Stade Brestois 29 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.68 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights