Strasbourg 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Strasbourg welcome Stade Brestois 29 to Stade de la Meinau. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Strasbourg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stade de la Meinau this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de la Meinau. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Strasbourg are significantly better at Stade de la Meinau than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Strasbourg 1.60 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Strasbourg, 3 for Stade Brestois 29 and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Strasbourg trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 60% versus Stade Brestois 29 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 60% | Stade Brestois 29 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 2.27 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.262 / defence 0.703 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.907 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.209. Strasbourg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Strasbourg's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Strasbourg games / 47 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 71% | Draw 18% | Stade Brestois 29 11%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Stade Brestois 29 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Strasbourg (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Strasbourg 50% | Stade Brestois 29 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 71% | Draw 18% | Stade Brestois 29 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 48% | xG Strasbourg 2.27 / Stade Brestois 29 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.262 / def 0.703 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.907 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Stade Brestois 29 xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Strasbourg 1 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 71% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (8 meetings): Strasbourg 2W | Draws 3 | Stade Brestois 29 3W.
What form are Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Strasbourg's attack rating (1.26) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
71%
1.40
18%
5.68
11%
8.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
3.04
0.77
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
8.98
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
10%
9.65
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
1%
86.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Strasbourg and 0.77 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 23W 10D 14L from 47 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 20L across 47 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Strasbourg on 1.68 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 15W 5D 3L from 23 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Strasbourg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 6W 3D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stade Brestois 29's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Strasbourg are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.47 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 23W 10D 14L in their last 47 games (1.68 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 18W 9D 20L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Strasbourg's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 2.17 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Stade Brestois 29 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
3
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 61%, Stade Brestois 29 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Strasbourg and 65% for Stade Brestois 29. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Strasbourg's games and 52% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Strasbourg's matches and 65% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Strasbourg and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Strasbourg 1-2 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.27 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.77 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Strasbourg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.26 / defence 0.70 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 71% | Draw 18% | Stade Brestois 29 11%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Stade Brestois 29 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 60%, Stade Brestois 29 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.68 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.