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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Strasbourg defy the odds to beat Paris Saint Germain 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Paris Saint Germain 2-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.54 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.08 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.64 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 29% | Draw 21% | Paris Saint Germain 50%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 57%, Paris Saint Germain 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Strasbourg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights