🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Monaco 5-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Monaco 5-4 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.46 xG and Monaco 1.38 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monaco outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Monaco attack 1.09 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 38% | Draw 27% | Monaco 35%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 61%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Monaco's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.60 PPG, Monaco 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights