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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Marseille defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Strasbourg 1-2 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.41 xG and Marseille 0.82 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Marseille attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 51% | Draw 27% | Marseille 22%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Marseille win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 56%, Marseille 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Marseille's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.77 PPG, Marseille 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights