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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lyon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Lyon 3-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.32 xG and Lyon 1.31 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Lyon attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 37% | Draw 26% | Lyon 37%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 61%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Lyon's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.57 PPG, Lyon 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights