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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Lyon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Lyon 4-2 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.42 xG and Lyon 1.32 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Lyon attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 39% | Draw 27% | Lyon 34%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 57%, Lyon 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Lyon's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.37 PPG, Lyon 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights