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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Strasbourg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg and Lorient finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.35 xG and Lorient 0.55 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Strasbourg fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.16 / defence 0.85 against Lorient attack 0.57 / defence 1.23, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 78% | Draw 15% | Lorient 7%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 59%, Lorient 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lorient's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.61 PPG, Lorient 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights