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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Auxerre 3-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.01 xG and Auxerre 1.11 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Auxerre attack 0.91 / defence 1.34, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 57% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 19%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 61%, Auxerre 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Auxerre's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Strasbourg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights