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Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stade Brestois 29.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Stade Brestois 29 0-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.19 xG and Toulouse 1.20 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Toulouse attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 62%, Toulouse 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Toulouse's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG, Toulouse 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights