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Stalemate at Stade Brestois 29's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 26, as Stade Brestois 29 and Reims drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.95 xG and Reims 0.98 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against Reims attack 0.70 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 60% | Draw 22% | Reims 18%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 48%, Reims 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Reims's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights