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Dominant Stade Brestois 29 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Nice 4-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.88 xG and Nice 1.44 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against Nice attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 48% | Draw 22% | Nice 29%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 63%, Nice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.34 PPG, Nice 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights