Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Metz in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stade Brestois 29 have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 Ligue 1 outings this season: 0W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 0W 2D 1L at Stade Francis-Le Blé — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Metz's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 0W 3D 4L from 7 games (0.43 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Metz's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.57 for Stade Brestois 29, 0.43 for Metz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 100% and Metz 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 43% | Metz 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.67 xG and Metz 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.963 / defence 1.341 | Metz attack 0.680 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.337. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Stade Brestois 29 games / 7 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 45% | Draw 31% | Metz 25%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Metz 4.00. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 100% | Metz 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 45% | Draw 31% | Metz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.67 / Metz 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.963 / def 1.341 | Metz attack 0.680 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Metz xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 2 Metz.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 45% chance of winning, Metz a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Metz (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.14 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.68x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.23
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.89
1.22
Metz xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.22 for Metz, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 0W 4D 3L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 4L across 7 games — 0.43 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.57 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 0.43 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.00 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
Metz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Metz have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Metz away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 0.67 PPG; Metz away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stade Brestois 29 go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Stade Brestois 29
0
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, Metz have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Metz 0-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Stade Brestois 29, 33% for Metz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stade Brestois 29) and 67% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Metz in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 33% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 67% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Metz tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Metz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Metz defy the odds to beat Stade Brestois 29 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Stade Brestois 29 1-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.67 xG and Metz 1.22 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Metz attack 0.68 / defence 1.48, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 45% | Draw 31% | Metz 25%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Metz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 43%, Metz 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 0.57 PPG, Metz 0.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.