Reims 3-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nantes make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 1W 4D 2L across 7 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune II: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Ligue 1 appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games (1.43 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nantes's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Reims, 1.43 for Nantes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Nantes — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 43% versus Nantes 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reims 29% | Nantes 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.96 xG and Nantes 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.791 / defence 1.196 | Nantes attack 1.047 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.337. Reims's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Reims games / 7 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 18% | Draw 31% | Nantes 51%. Fair-value odds: Reims 5.56 | Draw 3.23 | Nantes 1.96. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nantes are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reims 33% | Nantes 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 18% | Draw 31% | Nantes 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Reims 0.96 / Nantes 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.791 / def 1.196 | Nantes attack 1.047 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Nantes (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Nantes xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Nantes kick off?
Reims vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Nantes?
Reims 3 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Reims vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Nantes part of?
Reims vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 18% chance of winning, Nantes a 51% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reims and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Nantes in?
Reims (all comps): 1W-4D-2L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Nantes (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.79) and Nantes's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (1.05x) against Reims's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
18%
5.51
31%
3.21
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Reims xG
Total xG
2.64
1.68
Nantes xG
5.51
18%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
3%
29.40
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Reims and 1.68 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 4D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nantes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Reims — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Nantes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Nantes have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Nantes away?
Nantes's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 0.67 PPG; Nantes away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Reims or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Nantes in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Reims
1
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nantes?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 5, Nantes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Reims 1-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Nantes?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 33%, Nantes 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Reims and 33% for Nantes.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 67% of games; Nantes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Nantes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Reims's recent matches and 67% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Reims's recent games and 33% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Nantes tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nantes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Nantes 3-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.96 xG and Nantes 1.68 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Nantes attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 18% | Draw 31% | Nantes 51%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Reims win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 29%, Nantes 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nantes arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Nantes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.