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Stalemate at Stade Brestois 29's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 and Lyon finished level at 0-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.74 xG and Lyon 1.72 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Lyon attack 1.23 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 39% | Draw 22% | Lyon 38%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 61%, Lyon 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lyon's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.34 PPG, Lyon 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights