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Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Lyon 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Lyon 2-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.59 xG and Lyon 1.30 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Lyon attack 1.14 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 43% | Draw 27% | Lyon 30%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 46%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Lyon's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.60 PPG, Lyon 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights