Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 37%, yet in-form Lille provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lille to Stade Francis-Le-Blé in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stade Brestois 29 at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lille stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Lille have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Stade Brestois 29's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 10 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 3 for Lille and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2026, ended Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Lille — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lille trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 52% versus Lille 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 52% | Lille 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.36 xG and Lille 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.184 / defence 0.948 | Lille attack 1.074 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Lille bring a tight defence (rating 0.727, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Stade Brestois 29's projected output down. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 44 games and Lille's last 44.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 37% | Draw 27% | Lille 36%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.72 | Draw 3.64 | Lille 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lille (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home games and Lille's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 70% (last 10 home games) | Lille 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 37% | Draw 27% | Lille 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.36 / Lille 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.184 / def 0.948 | Lille attack 1.074 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lille xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille FAQs
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stade Francis-Le-Blé.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le-Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 37% chance of winning, Lille a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (1.18) and Lille's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stade Brestois 29's last 44 games and Lille's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.64
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.69
1.34
Lille xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.34 for Lille, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 12D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.86 PPG from 44 outings (24W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 9W 6D 7L across their last 22 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.91 points per game from their last 22 away games (13W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lille
Blended
Stade Brestois 29 (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Lille have gone 24W 10D 10L in their last 44 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.50 PPG; Lille away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lille in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Lille specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
5
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Lille have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 50%, Lille 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stade Brestois 29) and 46% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lille in 41%; Lille in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Brestois 29 and Lille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 36% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 46% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 77% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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