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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stade Brestois 29 and Lille share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 and Lille finished level at 3-3 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.50 xG and Lille 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lille outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Lille attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 44% | Draw 25% | Lille 31%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 62%, Lille 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Lille's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.47 PPG, Lille 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights