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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Sun 17 Aug 2025

14:00

Venue

Stade Francis-Le Blé

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Stade Brestois 29 Win

44%

Stade Brestois 29

2.29

25%

Draw

3.93

31%

Lille

3.25

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.0%

Home win

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.50

Stade Brestois 29 xG

Total xG

2.71

1.21

Lille xG

44%
25%
31%
Stade Brestois 29DrawLille

2.29

44%

Home win

3.93

25%

Draw

3.25

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.83

45%

BTTS No

2.20

Clean Sheet

30%

Stade Brestois 29

3.37

22%

Lille

4.47

Win to Nil

13%

Stade Brestois 29

7.70

7%

Lille

14.52

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.6 8.1 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.1
1 10.0 12.1 7.3 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 7.4 9.0 5.5 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 3.7 4.5 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.497
λ Away (xG) 1.214
Total xG 2.711
League avg home goals 1.555
League avg away goals 1.313
Stade Brestois 29 attack strength 1.017
Stade Brestois 29 defence strength 0.959
Lille attack strength 0.964
Lille defence strength 0.947
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34