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Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 22, as Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 2.79 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.23 / defence 1.12 against Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.49, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 68% | Draw 19% | Auxerre 13%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 47%, Auxerre 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Auxerre's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.67 PPG, Auxerre 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights