Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stade Brestois 29 face Angers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Angers travel to Stade Francis-Le Blé to take on Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Angers have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Angers have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stade Brestois 29 0.80 PPG, Angers 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Angers 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Angers — a Stade Brestois 29 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Angers in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 51% versus Angers 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 57% | Angers 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 2.00 xG and Angers 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.122 / defence 1.107 | Angers attack 0.749 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.300. Angers's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stade Brestois 29's projected output up. Angers's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 67 games and Angers's last 67.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 58% | Draw 23% | Angers 19%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.73 | Draw 4.30 | Angers 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home games and Angers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 40% (last 10 home games) | Angers 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 58% | Draw 23% | Angers 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Stade Brestois 29 2.00 / Angers 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.122 / def 1.107 | Angers attack 0.749 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Angers xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers FAQs
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 1 Angers.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 58% chance of winning, Angers a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stade Brestois 29's last 67 games and Angers's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.30
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.08
1.08
Angers xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
3%
38.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.08 for Angers, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 25W 13D 29L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Angers's form line: 19W 14D 34L from 67 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.31 PPG, Angers on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 33 home games (17W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Stade Brestois 29 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Angers have gone 8W 7D 18L from their last 33 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.90 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
Stade Brestois 29 (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Angers in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 25W 13D 29L in their last 67 games (1.31 PPG), while Angers have gone 19W 14D 34L in their last 67 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Angers away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.76 PPG; Angers away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Jan 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won Stade Brestois 29 4-0 Angers.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Angers specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Stade Brestois 29
2
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Angers?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, Angers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Stade Brestois 29 5-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Angers?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 48%, Angers 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Stade Brestois 29) and 27% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Angers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Brestois 29 and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 36% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stade Brestois 29 and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 27% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 64% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 and Angers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 34, as Stade Brestois 29 and Angers drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 2.00 xG and Angers 1.08 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Angers attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 58% | Draw 23% | Angers 19%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 57%, Angers 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.31 PPG, Angers 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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