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Stade Brestois 29 and Angers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 34, as Stade Brestois 29 and Angers drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 2.00 xG and Angers 1.08 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Angers attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 58% | Draw 23% | Angers 19%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 57%, Angers 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Angers's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.31 PPG, Angers 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights