Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajaccio make the trip to Stade Francis-Le Blé to face Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stade Brestois 29 have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajaccio (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajaccio's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Stade Brestois 29, 0.80 for Ajaccio — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Stade Brestois 29 — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 64% versus Ajaccio 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stade Brestois 29 49% | Ajaccio 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.35 xG and Ajaccio 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.806 / defence 1.386 | Ajaccio attack 0.706 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.467. Data: 45 Stade Brestois 29 games / 7 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 35% | Draw 27% | Ajaccio 39%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Ajaccio 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stade Brestois 29 60% | Ajaccio 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 35% | Draw 27% | Ajaccio 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.35 / Ajaccio 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.806 / def 1.386 | Ajaccio attack 0.706 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Ajaccio xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio?
Stade Brestois 29 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 35% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.71x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
35%
2.89
27%
3.72
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.78
1.44
Ajaccio xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.44 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 11D 20L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.69 PPG from 45 outings (22W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 1.50 points per game from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.93 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Ajaccio in 24%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 22W 10D 13L in their last 45 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Ajaccio away?
Ajaccio's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.23 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stade Brestois 29
1
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 0, Ajaccio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Ajaccio 0-0 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 54%, Ajaccio 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Stade Brestois 29 and 18% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 54%; Ajaccio in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 23% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 18% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Stade Brestois 29 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Stade Brestois 29 0-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.35 xG and Ajaccio 1.44 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.81 / defence 1.39 against Ajaccio attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 35% | Draw 27% | Ajaccio 39%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 49%, Ajaccio 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajaccio's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.