Nice 0-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Angers travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Angers have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.40 PPG, Angers 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Nice, 0 for Angers and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Angers in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 40% versus Angers 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 47% | Angers 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.71 xG and Angers 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.783 / defence 1.020 | Angers attack 0.805 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.467. Nice's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Angers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Nice games / 45 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 48% | Draw 25% | Angers 26%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Angers 3.85. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nice 50% | Angers 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 48% | Draw 25% | Angers 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Nice 1.71 / Angers 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.783 / def 1.020 | Angers attack 0.805 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Angers xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Angers kick off?
Nice vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Angers?
Nice 0 - 1 Angers.
Where is Nice vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Angers part of?
Nice vs Angers is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 48% chance of winning, Angers a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nice and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Angers?
Record (2 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 0 | Angers 0W.
What form are Nice and Angers in?
Nice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Angers (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nice's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
48%
2.06
25%
3.95
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Nice xG
Total xG
2.91
1.20
Angers xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Nice and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Nice and 1.20 for Angers, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nice come into this having played 45 games, going 22W 9D 14L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.02 PPG from 45 outings (11W 13D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nice's home form reads 10W 5D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (2W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.16 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Angers in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 22W 9D 14L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while Angers have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Angers away?
Nice's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.59 PPG; Angers away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Nice or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Angers in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Angers runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Angers specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Nice
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Angers?
From 8 meetings on record, Nice have won 5, Angers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Angers 0-2 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Angers?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 50%, Angers 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nice) and 50% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 32% of games; Angers in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nice's games and 68% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nice's recent games and 50% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Angers tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Angers in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Nice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Nice 0-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.71 xG and Angers 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Angers attack 0.81 / defence 1.44, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 48% | Draw 25% | Angers 26%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 47%, Angers 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Angers's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.