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Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Saint Etienne 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Saint Etienne 2-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.23 xG and Toulouse 2.01 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.96 / defence 1.49 against Toulouse attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 23% | Draw 22% | Toulouse 55%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 46%, Toulouse 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Toulouse's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.36 PPG, Toulouse 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights