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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 3-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.29 xG and Stade Brestois 29 2.16 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 2.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.88 / defence 1.47 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 22% | Draw 20% | Stade Brestois 29 57%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 44%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.35 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights