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Stalemate at Saint Etienne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Semi-finals, as Saint Etienne and Rodez drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.71 xG and Rodez 1.13 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 50% | Draw 26% | Rodez 24%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Rodez 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rodez's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.88 PPG, Rodez 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights