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Rennes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Saint Etienne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Saint Etienne 0-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.60 xG and Rennes 1.14 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Rennes attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 30% | Rennes 25%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Rennes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 43%, Rennes 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rennes's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.46 PPG, Rennes 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights