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Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reims.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Reims 3-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.93 xG and Reims 1.21 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.73 / defence 0.94 against Reims attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 27% | Draw 33% | Reims 41%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 41%, Reims 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Reims's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.51 PPG, Reims 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights