Saint Etienne 3-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Reims meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Reims have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Saint Etienne lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Reims — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 31% versus Reims 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 41% | Reims 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.93 xG and Reims 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.728 / defence 0.937 | Reims attack 0.980 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.312. Saint Etienne's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Saint Etienne games / 49 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 27% | Draw 33% | Reims 41%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Reims 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 30% | Reims 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 27% | Draw 33% | Reims 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Saint Etienne 0.93 / Reims 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.728 / def 0.937 | Reims attack 0.980 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Reims (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Reims xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Reims kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Saint Etienne 3 - 1 Reims.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Reims part of?
Saint Etienne vs Reims is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 27% chance of winning, Reims a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Saint Etienne and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Reims 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Reims in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.73) and Reims's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.98x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
27%
3.74
33%
3.07
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.14
1.21
Reims xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.48
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.21 for Reims, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 22W 8D 19L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 18W 13D 18L from 49 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.37 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.88 PPG from 24 outings (14W 3D 7L).
On the road, Reims have gone 8W 7D 9L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims in 63%.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Reims in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 22W 8D 19L in their last 49 games (1.51 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Reims away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.88 PPG; Reims away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Reims in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Reims have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Reims 1-0 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 33%, Reims 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Saint Etienne) and 67% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 75% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 67% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Reims tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reims in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Reims 3-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.93 xG and Reims 1.21 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.73 / defence 0.94 against Reims attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 27% | Draw 33% | Reims 41%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 41%, Reims 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.51 PPG, Reims 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.